Outcome Measures for the State of the Union

On the way to the dentist this morning, I heard an interesting interview on NPR.  Julian Zelizer, a history professor from Princeton, was pointing out the importance to the Obama presidency of tonight’s Constitutionally-mandated State of the Union (SOTU) Address.  As a political virgin myself—never having said or done much that can be construed as political beyond exercising my right to vote—I had overlooked the significance of this specific occasion.  The third SOTU speech is, effectively, the sitting president’s launch of his re-election campaign.  I was fascinated by the examples cited of former presidents—notably Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton—who set the tones for their re-election bids during their third SOTU addresses.   

Since we know the outcomes of past elections, it is interesting to relate the strategy of the third SOTU speech to each president’s eventual success or failure in seeking re-election.  Jimmy Carter, for example, was reeling from the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and the Iran hostage situation; his third SOTU address was dismal, to say the least.  He was brutally honest about economic conditions, spelling out each quandary in agonizing detail.  He offered little hope that solutions could be imagined, let alone executed.    By contrast, Ronald Reagan, after a term emphasizing military build-up and reinvigorating the arms race, realized that the public had grown weary of the cold war.  He borrowed from Eisenhouser’s rhetoric to introduce the theme of “people against war”.  Thus, he went from pushing Star Wars to being characterized as a peacemaker, taking re-election in a landslide.   Midterm, Bill Clinton lost his democratic majority in Congress and saw Newt Gingrich installed as Speaker.  His third SOTU uncharacteristically decried big government.  He then offered a selection of small and decidedly uncontroversial measures, such as seatbelts and V-chips, in his address.  Despite a hostile government stage and a parade of personal indiscretions, Clinton won re-election by a comfortable margin.

Given that tonight’s speech will set the tone for Obama’s re-election campaign, what specific goals must it deliver?  I thought it would be fun to think about the SOTU as a marketing event rather than a political one.  This allows me to look at it in a more comfortable light, asking what tangible and intangible buttons it needs to push in order to be considered successful for Obama.  I am not endorsing one candidate; nor am I discussing the relative merits of his policies or his performance of his stated agenda.  Rather, I want to consider tonight’s SOTU Address simply as an opportunity in the public eye by a candidate seeking re-election.  By setting benchmarks or expected outcomes in advance, I can avoid becoming entangled in the emotional webs the speechwriters spin.   After the speech, I wonder whether Obama's overlap my expected outcomes will give a good prediction of whether or not the President will succeed in his re-election bid.

These are my expected outcomes, or things I would expect candidate-Obama to accomplish in his SOTU speech: 

SET THE RIGHT TONE:  I believe that many Americans get more vibes from the president’s tone than from his content.  I expect a tough room—the “aisle” sharply dividing those who cheer and those who sit among the crickets.  In the past, the president could always expect polite decorum in these august chambers, but in Obama’s administration, even this rule has been broken.  Given the killer cocktail of weak economy and low approval rating, Obama must reach a pitch that is definitive and authoritative.  Most importantly, he must resist the temptation to explain to America what went wrong or why it has been difficult to accomplish what he promised accomplish.  No excuses; Americans need hope.  Through his tone, Obama must say, “I have the answers.  Follow me.”

TRANSCEND PARTISANISM:  The public is sick of partisan politics.  It is a worthy exercise for every American to Google George Washington’s resignation speech.  Read the section where he warned of the dangers of political parties, not just because of the domination of one party over the other, but also for their tendency to exact revenge on their opponents.  Obama must avoid the trap of engaging in either party’s rhetoric.  If he panders to one side he polarizes; to the other he is disingenuous.  He needs to cherry-pick ideas that can be fully embraced, otherwise the public will fear that an Obama presidency will bring four more years of gridlock.  A large share of Obama’s disapproval comes from those who believe in what Obama stands for, but have come to realize that he lacks the wherewithal to get it done.

DISPLAY SEASONED LEADERSHIP:  While Obama has no shortage of intelligence, he betrays his lack of inexperience.   Joe Biden was the answer to this during the last election—the senior Senator who would balance out Obama’s inexperience on both the international stage and inside the Beltway.  Today, Obama needs to show that he has garnered wisdom along with all the distinguished gray hair.  The SOTU Address must convey how much Obama has matured during his three years in office so he can be perceived as a senior statesman.  Our country cannot afford to endure any more on-the-job training.

GIVE US SOMETHING NEW ON TAXES AND THE ECONOMY:  The rhetoric of 2008 will not satisfy.  Even if there are no new ideas, they must be framed in a different light.  As soon as Obama says, “People who make above $250,000 will pay a little more in taxes” the game is over.  Nor will sweeping generalizations about jobs and the deficit win the fight.  There need to be specific job-creating policies with well-vetted price tags that can be implemented with offsetting cuts in non-essential areas—all without increasing taxes.

TALLY THE CONCRETE ACCOMPLISHMENTS:  While the State of the Union is not what we hope it can be, there are many positive indicators from the last three years.  As President, Obama is the only candidate who has such accomplishments to offer.  These should touch on homeland security, ending the war in Iraq, Osama Bin Laden, and as many economic upticks as can be marshaled credibly.  He should not over-stretch, however, as every disputed “fact” will serve to discredit him on the campaign trail. 

LEAVE US FEELING BETTER OFF:  One of Ronald Reagan’s most powerful re-election tools was the ability to ask: “Are you better off than four years ago?”  Obama does not have this luxury.  However, he has an opportunity here—in a non-campaign setting—to present evidence (if it exists) that perhaps things are not as bad as they have been perceived.  Is it possible to find a gap between where people feel they are and where they really are?  That’s for the politicians and economists to decide.   I always assume that the truth is being inflated; if the State of the Union is presented as bleak, things are probably much worse.  I will be looking closely at the evidence used to indicate that things are looking up.  If this does not pass muster, I will know that Obama and his team cannot get us where we need to go.

APPEAL TO OUR HUMANITY:  The world has become infected with a virus of disrespect, disregard, power mongering, and unrelenting evil.  Our resources are being consumed for defense and counter-terrorism to a greater extent now than during the arms race of the Cold War.  The era of terrorism has introduced a value system where the lines of good and bad and right and wrong are twisted and indistinguishable.  I fear for my children—not for their safety per se, but for their ability to live comfortably and happily in a world this overstressed with conflict and complexity.  A good president must be willing to lead us to peace as well as to war.  He must stick out his neck to uphold integrity, fairness, and human values.  I want a candidate who is not afraid to think independently and say, “Hey, we have to do the right thing here.”    I know this is oversimplifying, however, when I listen to the President tonight I will be scrutinizing his commitment to humanity.  

I have done my best to be bi-partisan, or maybe anti-partisan, here.  Feel free to share your thoughts on what you look for in a SOTU speech.  What do you think Tuesday’s speech will say (or said—I’m writing this before the speech) about Obama’s message for his presidential re-election campaign.  Did he aim at the right target?  Did he set himself up with the message Americans want to hear in the coming year?  Which past President did his approach most resemble?  Did he turn a corner on his presidency, or re-hash the same campaign message?   Can we tell which Republican he believes he will be facing?

God bless America.  God bless the children of the world.

Tomorrow's blog:  Caught by the Short Hairs